New Research Reveals Surprising Insights About How We Plan and Make Decisions

When faced with important decisions, how much time should we spend planning? When is it worth taking extra time to think through scenarios, and when should we trust our instincts? A new study published in Nature Neuroscience has revealed fascinating insights about how our brains approach planning and decision-making that could change how you think about these questions.

As the study notes, “Because thinking does not involve the acquisition of new information or interactions with the environment, its ubiquity for human decision-making is perhaps surprising. However, thinking allows us to perform more computations with limited information, which can improve performance on downstream tasks.” In other words, even though thinking doesn’t give us new information, it helps us process what we already know in ways that lead to better outcomes.

The Power of Purposeful Pauses

The research revealed something fascinating about how our brains naturally handle complex situations. “Because physically interacting with the environment can incur unnecessary risk or consume time and other resources, the benefits of planning often make up for the time spent on the planning process itself.” This helps explain why we sometimes feel an instinct to pause before making important decisions – our brains are actually engaging in valuable processing work.

The study found that “variability in thinking time is an important feature of human behavior that reflects the variable cognitive demands of action selection.” This isn’t just procrastination or indecision – it’s your brain allocating appropriate resources to different types of decisions. 

Action Item: Create a “complexity pause” practice. When facing a decision, pay attention to your natural instinct to pause and think. Rather than fighting this instinct or feeling guilty about not deciding immediately, use it as a signal to engage in purposeful planning. Consider keeping a log of which types of decisions trigger this response to better understand your own decision-making patterns.

The Value of Mental Simulation

One of the study’s most practical findings was that mentally simulating potential actions improved outcomes. The researchers found that “mental simulation is generally faster and less risky than executing physical actions, this can improve overall performance despite the temporal opportunity cost of planning.”

Even more interesting, “The average number of actions needed to reach the goal decreased monotonically as the number of forced rollouts [mental simulations] increased” and “performing more rollouts both improved performance and reduced uncertainty.” This suggests that taking time to mentally simulate different scenarios isn’t just busy-work – it actually leads to better decisions.

Action Item: Before your next significant decision, create a “simulation session.” Set aside dedicated time to mentally walk through different scenarios and their potential outcomes. Don’t just do this once — the research suggests that multiple simulation sessions can continue to improve your understanding and decision quality.

The Progressive Power of Planning

One of the study’s most compelling findings was that consecutive planning sessions showed increasing effectiveness. The researchers found that “over-representation increased with each consecutive replay” and “successful rollouts increased [the probability of taking the planned action], while unsuccessful rollouts decreased [it].” This suggests that our planning abilities actually improve as we engage in multiple sessions, helping us distinguish between more and less promising approaches.

Action Item: For important decisions, schedule multiple short planning sessions rather than one long session. Use each session to build on previous insights, and pay particular attention to which approaches seem most promising as your understanding develops.

Distance and Difficulty

The research revealed a fascinating pattern: “Thinking times were longer when participants were further from the goal, consistent with longer routes taking longer to plan.” This suggests our brains naturally allocate more planning time to situations where we’re further from our desired outcome.

Action Item: When setting goals, create a “distance metric” – how far is your current position from your desired outcome? Use this as a gauge for how much planning time you might need to allocate. The further the distance, the more planning time you might want to budget.

Reducing Uncertainty Through Planning

The study demonstrated that effective planning significantly reduced uncertainty about decisions. “Performing more rollouts both improved performance and reduced uncertainty,” showing a clear link between planning and decision confidence.

Action Item: Create an uncertainty scale from 1-10 for your decisions. If uncertainty is high, use this as a trigger for additional planning sessions. Track how your uncertainty levels change as you engage in more planning – this can help you recognize when you’ve reached a point of diminishing returns.

Important Context and Limitations

While these findings provide valuable insights into how planning affects decision-making, it’s important to understand the research context. The study involved 94 participants in a controlled environment with clear success metrics. Real-world decisions often involve additional factors like emotional considerations, team dynamics, and complex stakeholder relationships that weren’t part of this research.

Conclusion

This research provides compelling evidence that taking time to plan isn’t just intuitive – it’s backed by science. The findings suggest that our brains have sophisticated mechanisms for planning and decision-making that, when properly utilized, can significantly improve our choices and outcomes.

The key isn’t just to plan more, but to plan more strategically – recognizing when additional planning time might be valuable and when you might be ready to act. By understanding these natural planning mechanisms, we can make better use of our planning time and potentially improve our decision-making outcomes.

Remember that while perfect certainty is rarely achievable, effective planning can help us navigate uncertainty more successfully. Use these insights to develop a more intentional approach to planning, and you’ll likely find yourself making decisions with greater confidence and clarity.